A field of 12 teams has been whittled down to the last four standing.
After a fascinating round of quarterfinals games the last four teams remaining in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff are set. Fifth-seeded Texas will take on No. 8 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, while No. 7 Notre Dame has earned a spot against No. 6 Penn State in the Orange Bowl. Penn State and Notre Dame will meet on January 9, while Texas and Ohio State will square off on January 10.
How do we at SB Nation rank the last four standing, in terms of their odds of winning it all?
Let’s dive in.
4. Texas
For the first 30 minutes of the Peach Bowl, everything was going according to plan for Texas. The Longhorns built a 17-3 lead at the halftime break, Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo had just 45 rushing yards, and it looked as if Texas would cruise to the semifinals.
Then the second half happened.
Skattebo and company roared to life, and Skattebo’s touchdown run and subsequent two-point conversion tied the game with five minutes remaining. Texas kicker Bert Auburn missed a pair of field goals in the closing minutes, and what looked at one point to be a blowout was suddenly in overtime.
While the Longhorns emerged victorious, the path from here gets much, much tougher. Now they’ll face an Ohio State team that looked like the best team in the nation in their dominant performance against Oregon. Can Texas win? Sure. But they’ll need a complete performance on both sides of the football if they are going to knock off the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl.
3. Penn State
In my mind, there are two versions of Penn State: the one that shows up in the first half, with QB Drew Allar throwing flaming pitchforks through opposing secondaries, the run game firing on all cylinders and a fast defense flying to the ball at all 11 positions. The second half felt more disjointed, with the passing game slowing down for the Nittany Lions and Boise State finding some holes in the passing game with superstar EDGE Abdul Carter hampered with an injury. Carter’s injury and how close he is to 100% is going to play a major role in if the Nittany Lions can win the title, but if the Allar that plays in the first half continues to show up, Penn State can win it all.
Something to watch for them going forward: Boise State had a lot of success blitzing Allar and Penn State, largely because they didn’t know how to pickup the blitz. This doesn’t bode well going up against Notre Dame, a team willing to play the chaos game against Penn State.
2. Notre Dame
Notre Dame earned a slot in the Orange Bowl with a stout defensive performance against Georgia.
Things will get tougher next week against Penn State, but Notre Dame flashed their ability to get after the passer Thursday in the Sugar Bowl. RJ Oben’s strip-sack of Gunnar Stockton in the closing seconds of the first half proved pivotal, as Notre Dame put ten points on the board in the final minute of the second quarter. Add in a kickoff return touchdown from Jayden Harrison to open the third quarter, and you have the impetus for Notre Dame’s 23-10 win.
They will need to get more out of their offense to get by Penn State, but as noted above Notre Dame’s ability to bring pressure could be a big factor, thanks to the road map laid out by Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
1. Ohio State
Remember the ending to Happy Gilmore, when Happy Gilmore learned how to putt?
Wednesday’s performance by Ohio State in their 41-21 throttling of Oregon felt a bit like that.
In the Buckeyes’ disastrous loss to Michigan at the end of the regular season, which cost Ohio State a shot at the Big Ten Championship Game, Ryan Day and the offensive staff relied too much on the interior run game — which was weakened by the loss of center Seth McLaughlin to an Achilles injury and presented a challenge given the strength of Michigan’s defensive tackles — and struggled to get anything going on the edges. In addition, the passing game was inconsistent at best, with Will Howard throwing a pair of interceptions that perhaps fueled the decision to lean into the rushing attack.
Wednesday against the Ducks, Ohio State got both the perimeter run game going, as well as their passing attack.
Add in what they were able to do to Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense with defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ three-safety looks, and you have a team that truly looks like the best in the country right now.
