Not all NBA Draft lotteries are created equal. A year ago, when the Atlanta Hawks jumped from up from No. 10 to win the lottery, there was no sure-fire No. 1 overall player sitting there as the obvious prize. That’s not the case this year: the teams entering the lottery are all praying for the rights to Cooper Flagg, the no-brainer top prospect and a potential franchise-changing player.
Flagg was billed as a generational prospect entering Duke, and he lived up to every ounce of hype. The freshman was the very best player in college basketball this year despite only spending three years in high school and playing half the season as a 17-year-old. Flagg led Duke to the Final Four, where his season ended in heartbreak against Houston, but he’s a tier above any other player in this draft class.
Flagg has the talent to be a transformational star for the franchise lucky enough to win his draft rights. Which franchise deserves to land him? These are the best landing spots for Flagg, determined by a combination of how it would impact the overall health of the league landscape, his best spots for development, and personal preference. We’ll finally know where he lands when the lottery is drawn on Monday, May 12.
6. Dallas Mavericks
Lottery position: No. 11 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 1.8%
Nico Harrison doesn’t deserve Cooper Flagg, but Dallas fans do. The Mavs missed the playoffs a year after reaching the NBA Finals following Harrison’s awful Luka Doncic trade, and the team’s future looks bleak with Kyrie Irving sidelined for most or all of next season as he rehabs his torn ACL. Harrison was right about some of Doncic’s shortcomings, but he didn’t come close to recouping fair value in the deal. Winning the rights to Flagg would immediately make up for it and breathe new life into an incredibly pissed off fanbase. The Mavs would have their front court of the future locked down with Flagg and Dereck Lively II, but they would still have to add so much more young talent on the perimeter. A Dallas win from the No. 11 spot would raise some eyebrows from conspiracy theorists who believe the lottery is occasionally rigged. Regardless, it would be nice for Mavs fans to have their team land a new star in this draft. Asking for Flagg just feels like a bit too much.
5. Portland Trail Blazers
Lottery position: No. 10 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 3.7%
The Trail Blazers’ post-Damian Lillard rebuild finally started to bear fruit this season by making a 15-win improvement from last year. Portland is reportedly ready to push for the playoffs next season, but it still doesn’t have a franchise star. There are a lot of nice role players here like Deni Avdija (one of the league’s sharpest offseason pickups), Tourmani Camara (an elite defensive forward who just turned 24 years old), and last year’s first round pick, Donovan Clingan. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are making strides, too, but don’t look like future All-Stars yet. With a loaded 2026 draft class entering the league next year, the Blazers risk getting out of their rebuild a year too early if they don’t come away with some lottery luck this year. With Flagg joining Camara and Clingan, Portland would immediately have a nasty defensive identity and a new star to power the offense. Add Flagg and this suddenly looks like one of the best young cores in the league.
4. Charlotte Hornets
Lottery position: No. 3 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 14%
The Hornets are always the bridesmaid when it comes to the draft lottery. The franchise has never won the NBA draft lottery since it relaunched as the Bobcats in 2004, finishing second for both Anthony Davis in 2012 and Victor Wembanyama in 2023. It feels like Charlotte needs a stroke of luck more than ever entering the lottery this year. The Hornets are trending the wrong way after going from 27 to 21 to 19 wins over the last three years. LaMelo Ball isn’t reliable enough with his health or approach to be a franchise star, Brandon Miller remains best suited for a secondary scoring role coming off major wrist surgery, and last year’s first-round pick Tidjane Salaun looks years away from contributing to put it kindly. One thing Charlotte does have going for it is surplus future first-round picks in its back pocket, including the Mavs’ top-2 protected 2027 pick and a Heat pick that could be unprotected in 2028. If the Hornets do win the rights to Flagg, their best move might be moving off Ball and starting fresh. Charlotte hasn’t had much to root for over the last couple decades, but getting Flagg would immediately give them the superstar they’ve been missing.
3. Chicago Bulls
Lottery position: No. 12 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 1.7%
It feels like almost any other team in the Bulls’ position would choose to tank. Instead, Chicago was determined to remain “competitive,” winning 39 games for the second straight season even after moving on from DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Alex Caruso over the last year. The Bulls’ front office has no interest in losing on purpose to better their lottery odds, even if the best case scenario is chasing the No. 8 seed in the East without a franchise player on the roster. Chicago did well with its first-round pick last year by finding Matas Buzelis at No. 11, and his development is the most exciting thing around the organization right now. Josh Giddey and Coby White looked great in the second half as opposing teams were either tanking or resting their starters, but the pairing still feels too flawed to be built for playoff success. Chicago badly needs a foundational star to revive the national relevancy of a big market sleeping giant, and Flagg would accomplish that instantly. If the NBA really wants to deter tanking, rewarding Chicago for treating every game with dignity is one way to do it. Lead executive Arturas Karnisovas feels like he’s leading the Bulls on a shortcut to nowhere, and the only way this organization is really turning around is with some lottery luck. Full disclose: I was raised in Chicagoland as a Bulls fan. Sliding them to No. 3 here counts as showing restraint.
2. Brooklyn Nets
Lottery position: No. 6 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 9%
The Nets were feisty throughout this season before finishing 5-21 down the stretch as they prioritized lottery position. Brooklyn has some solid young veterans in place with Cameron Johnson on the wing and Nic Claxton at center, but there’s still nothing resembling a franchise player here. Landing Flagg would change that and immediately make Brooklyn one of the most intriguing young teams in the East. The Nets appear to have a sharp head coach after an impressive debut year for Jordi Fernandez. They also have a ton of future first-round picks coming their way from other teams. Brooklyn’s best bet is to stay the course and hunt for stars in the draft rather than getting into the Giannis Antetokounmpo derby. Brooklyn winning the lottery would put Flagg in the East (which desperately needs star-power) in a major market. The Nets were close to building something special with Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving until it blew up in their face. Landing Flagg would usher in the start of a long-term build towards contention, and wipe away the pain of that last era falling short.
1. Washington Wizards
Lottery position: No. 2 | Chances at No. 1 pick: 14%
Wizards fans haven’t had much to get excited about over the last 40 years. The John Wall-Bradley Beal era was the closest thing to a sustainable contender this franchise has built over that time period, and it petered out without ever winning multiple playoff series in the same season. The Wizards have operated with plenty of patience in the current rebuild, but their haul so far (Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, AJ Johnson, and Kyshawn George) is missing a star player who can slot everyone else into an appropriate role. Putting Flagg in DC would rebuild an Eastern Conference doormat and give them someone with the potential to become the most iconic player in franchise history. It would also give Flagg a soft landing spot where he could grow into being a primary offensive engine without immediate pressure to win right away. The Wizards still feel like a blank slate, and landing a player like Flagg would give them a purpose and timeline for winning games. If the NBA wants Flagg on a franchise he can call his own, Washington D.C. feels like the best landing spot.