Five big-money NFL quarterback deals were signed in 2024, with various cases being made for Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Kirk Cousins all getting the best deal on the market. In 2023, it was Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and to a slightly lesser degree Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, and Aaron Rodgers. But after a flurry of QB contracts over the last two offseasons, we’re about to hit a dry spell.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has had a ton of success in the regular season and a respectable career, but owner/general manager Jerry Jones doesn’t see any urgency in extending the 31-year-old QB. Prescott is set to be a free agent in 2025 so whether he signs his deal between now and the end of the 2024 season or actually hits the open market, we know his deal is going to be one of the next two record-setting contracts.
The other QBs hitting the market in 2025 aren’t likely to command big-money deals. Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, and Justin Fields all could start games for their respective teams in 2024, but it’s difficult to see any of them playing well enough to demand anything more than a Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith type of deal.
Alongside Prescott, the next big QB contract is going to be Brock Purdy. Due to language surrounding rookie deals in the collective bargaining agreement, Purdy can’t sign a contract extension until after the 2024 season. He’s been among the best values in the NFL (or one of the most underpaid players in the NFL, depending on your perspective) since taking over as the San Francisco 49ers starter, and he’s likely to set multiple records with his new deal.
Beyond those two, we may not see any other QB contracts in 2025 thanks to truly underwhelming NFL Draft classes in 2021 and 2022.
Trevor Lawrence signed an extension, but the rest of the 2021 class has either been given up on or a non-starter. Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones — the four other first-round quarterbacks — have all been dealt for pennies on the dollar and are looking for an opportunity to reset their careers, not sign top-of-the-market contracts.
The 2022 draft class is eligible soon for extensions, as we discussed with Purdy, but he’s the only one currently starting. Kenny Pickett was the only first-rounder and he’s been traded. Desmond Ridder started for a while but he’s been traded, and the same goes for Sam Howell.
So that’s the list for the 2025 offseason; Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.
In an entirely different way, 2025 could also see a new or at least a reworked deal for Bills QB Josh Allen to get him more in line with the rest of the big quarterbacks. Allen has no money guaranteed beyond his 2025 salary. He’s only scheduled to make roughly $40 million per season over the length of his contract while other deals are paying $55 million per season. The Bills will also want to tack on at least one year in order to spread out his 2025 salary cap hit across five seasons. Even if it’s not an extension with added contract years, the Bills can shift up cash in the deal like the Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes in 2023.
In 2026, a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and a 35-year-old Geno Smith are slated to hit the market alongside Gardner Minshew, who could at least conceivably play his way into a decent contract with two good years for the Raiders, but none of them will be resetting the market.
QBs entering the final year of their deal in 2026 could potentially see extensions in the offseason. Rookie contracts for Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richardson will have team options for the 2027 season or they could just do an entirely new deal instead. Stroud, in particular, has the chance to be the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL two offseasons from now. As a second-rounder, Will Levis is a free agent in 2027 with no team option, so if he plays well in the next couple years, he will be looking for a new deal by the 2026 offseason.
Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones are entering the last years of their deal in 2026, but they haven’t exactly been great on their current contracts. Baker Mayfield won’t likely command top dollar, and the same can be said for a then 40-year-old Matthew Stafford. The Saints will probably end up extending Derek Carr to prolong their salary cap doom spiral.
So even 2026 will be low on potential big-time deals; C.J. Stroud feels the likeliest, while his draft classmates would be in the next tier, followed by Watson, I guess. Like I said, slim pickings.
After five deals in 2024 and seven in 2023, we might not see more than two or three over the next two offseasons combined.
