The definitive guide to the WNBA playoffs

It’s WNBA playoff time: matchups are set, the schedule is out, and all that’s left is the basketball to be played. This postseason comes on the heels of a regular season that shattered attendance and viewership records, welcomed an elite class of rookies, and shone light on individual dominance that in many ways was unrivaled in league history.

The first round will begin on Sunday, September 22nd, a best-of-three series. The subsequent two rounds are best-of-five (Semi-Finals and Finals) and will run through October.

Here’s what to look out for in each first-round matchup, including notable players, the schedule itself, key matchups — and my final predictions.

#1 New York Liberty vs #8 Atlanta Dream

Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images

Schedule:

Game 1 will be in New York on Sunday, September 22nd at 1pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 2 will be in New York on Tuesday, September 24th at 7:30pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will be in Atlanta on Thursday, September 26th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular Season Series: New York won 3-1

Prediction: Liberty in two.

The Liberty should win this one handily. After all, New York has been the best team all season, and Breanna Stewart, a two-time MVP, is once again playing at an MVP-caliber level. After losing in the Finals last season, the Liberty came back a better team this year in nearly every respect, and have held the league’s best record for most of the year. Stewie started the year slow (by her own lofty standards), but she’s found her rhythm of late. In her last 10 games, she averaged 22.7 points on 49% shooting, including 41% from three.

Rookie Leonie Fiebich has also been an impactful addition to the rotation, emerging as a candidate for Sixth Player of the Year, and establishing herself as one of the league’s premier three-point threats. Jonquel Jones has shown flashes of her former MVP self, and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, after missing several weeks recovering from knee surgery, should be healthy and ready to impact the game as an elite two-way player.

Still, the Liberty enter the postseason after perhaps their worst stretch of basketball of the season. They dropped three of their last four home games, and nearly squandered a 20-point lead against the Wilson-less Aces two weeks ago. They ultimately concluded their season with two losses in the final three games, and suffered some uncharacteristic energy lulls in the final weeks. It’s a small sample size of struggles — and a downswing that’s unavoidable in a 40-game season — but it comes at an unfortunate time.

Atlanta, meanwhile, secured the #8 seed in the final day of the regular season, overcoming a slow start to the year and topping the Chicago Sky and Washington Mystics for the last postseason berth. The Dream have been a .500 team since the Olympics, led by Rhyne Howard (19 points per game since the break) and Tina Charles (17 points, 11.8 rebounds).

Howard is likely going to need to have a monster series in order for Atlanta to have a chance to complete what would be a major upset, as will Charles, who’s seemingly turned back the clock and has been a formidable presence in the post. (She also became the league’s all-time rebounder on Thursday). Allisha Gray, the Dream’s second-leading scorer this season with 15.6 points a night, will also have her hands full on both ends in this one.

But make no mistake — the Liberty are the heavy favorites here. For the season, they have a +11.7 net rating, while the Dream have a -3.6 net rating. They have two former MVPs, and the league’s third-best defense. Losing in the first round would be a massive upset, and the better question is whether this team has the makings of a WNBA champion — and whether they’d beat the Lynx, Aces, Sun, or any other team that might stand between them and a title.

#2 Minnesota Lynx vs #7 Phoenix Mercury

Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images

Schedule:

Game 1 will be in Minnesota on Sunday, September 22nd at 5pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 2 will be in Minnesota on Wednesday, September 25th at 9:30pm ET (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will be on Phoenix on Friday, September 27th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

Prediction: Lynx in two

This series has the potential to be the most lopsided first-round series of the pack. The Lynx have been the league’s best team since the Olympic break, going 13-2, while the Mercury have been one of the worst, amassing a 6-9 record. Anything can happen in a three-game series, but these are two teams heading in distinctly opposite directions.

Napheesa Collier is central to everything Minnesota does, and she’s put together the best season of her career (and an undeniable MVP-caliber campaign). Collier averaged 20.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists in 34.7 minutes per game, while also making a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year.

But, what makes Minnesota so great is that it’s not just Collier leading the charge. Kayla McBride has been crucial as a spacer and a scorer, solidifying herself as one of the league’s best three-point shooters. Courtney Williams has been one of the most underrated playmakers in the league. Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton are both having seasons worthy of the Most Improved Player award. Cheryl Reeve has maximized this roster, and everything is clicking heading into the postseason.

On the Mercury side, this could be Diana Taurasi’s final week of professional basketball, and that’s been the big headline (and rightfully so). The reality is that Taurasi has actually been solid this year despite obviously not being in her prime, but the Mercury have not been able to put the pieces together. Sophie Cunningham has emerged as a locker room leader and a Sixth Player of the Year candidate. Brittney Griner’s had a great individual season, as has Natasha Cloud, but things just haven’t meshed the way the front office hoped.

Entering the first round of the postseason, the disparity between Minnesota and Phoenix is undeniable — Minnesota has had the league’s second-best defensive rating this year (94.8) while Phoenix has the fourth-worst (105.4). Phoenix has also been the league’s second-worst rebounding team this year, which has been one of many factors that have contributed to stretches of losing basketball. The Mercury will need to flip a switch to get an upset, and after so much inconsistency this regular season, that will be tough to do.

#3 Connecticut Sun vs #6 Indiana Fever

Photo by Michael Hickey/NBAE via Getty Images

Schedule:

Game 1 will be in Connecticut on Sunday, September 22nd at 3pm (on ABC)
Game 2 will be in Connecticut on Wednesday, September 25th at 7:30pm (on ABC)
Game 3, if necessary, will be in Indiana on Friday, September 27th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular Season Series: Connecticut won 3-1

Prediction: Sun in two (or Fever in three)

This is a tough one to predict. The Sun have been the better team this season, and they’re far more experienced (and superior defensively). But the Fever actually have the better post-Olympic record, and the two hottest guards in the game (Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark are the second and third-leading scorers in the league since the Olympics, respectively). Indiana has found something with Lexie Hull in the starting lineup — she’s been a pest defensively, and also finished the season with the second-best three-point percentage of any player in the WNBA. Aliyah Boston looked like a different player to close the year than she did in the early parts of the season.

Driving it all has been Caitlin Clark, who broke a record for most assists in a season — and in a game — by any player in WNBA history. Clark is the definitive Rookie of the Year, and has broken countless records in her first professional season.

Still, the Sun’s defensive backcourt is one of the best in the game — DiJonai Carrington, Ty Harris, and Marina Mabrey have all been stellar on that end, as has Veronica Burton off the bench. With the way Mitchell and Clark have been playing, it’ll be difficult to contain the Fever backcourt regardless of their defensive personnel — but the Sun have as good a chance to slow them down as anyone.

The Fever still haven’t been great defensively, and will have their hands full with a seasoned Sun team that has 6 players averaging double-figures: DeWanna Bonner (15 points per game), Marina Mabrey (14.9 points), Brionna Jones (13.7 points), DiJonai Carrington (12.7 points), Alyssa Thomas (10.6 points), and Tyasha Harris (10.5 points). Connecticut still goes through stagnant spells offensively, but since acquiring Mabrey mid-season, they have one more outlet for those struggles. Mabrey has shot a team-best 42.4% from three since joining Connecticut, and could be the key for the Sun moving forward.

Things get tricky for Connecticut if they lose one of their two games at Mohegan — Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is going to be one of the most boisterous playoff environments, and Indiana has fed off that crowd all season. If the Sun split the first two games, Indiana has home-court (and the momentum) heading into a deciding Game 3.

#4 Las Vegas Aces vs #5 Seattle Storm

Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Schedule:

Game 1 will be in Las Vegas on Sunday, September 22nd at 10pm (on ESPN)
Game 2 will be in Las Vegas on Tuesday, September 24th at 9:30pm (on ESPN)
Game 3, if necessary, will be in Seattle on Friday, September 27th, time TBD (on ESPN2)

Regular Season Series: Las Vegas won 3-1

Prediction: Aces in three

The Las Vegas Aces are hoping to become the first WNBA team to win three consecutive championships since the Houston Comets won four in row in the league’s first seasons. It’s a tall task, and when they began the season with a 6-6 record, it appeared unlikely, but with four Olympians and the best player in the world, they can never be counted out. Tiffany Hayes has been a key addition off the bench; Hayes is a leading candidate for Sixth Player of the Year, and provided a much-needed spark after slow starts, while Kelsey Plum has found a rhythm post-Olympics.

The Aces have been better than the Storm this season — and especially since the break. Since the Olympics, the Aces are 11-5, while the Storm are 8-7 and have had undeniable moments of frustration after letdown losses. The Storm also haven’t had many marquee wins this year— they’re 4-10 against the top 4 teams in the league this season, and have largely feasted on non-playoff teams despite how talented this roster might be on paper.

There’s also the issue of health. The Aces finished the season at full strength, but Seattle was without Jewell Loyd (knee) and Ezi Magbegor (concussion) for the last few games. Storm head coach Noelle Quinn said Loyd will be good to go, but it’s not certain if she’ll be at full strength. Without Magbegor, Seattle is a different team defensively.

Nneka Ogwumike has been playing at an MVP level this season, and Diggins-Smith has been much better since the break, averaging 18.5 points (on 47.6% shooting) and 6.3 assists. Loyd’s efficiency is still not quite there (she’s shooting 35.7% since the Olympics) but she’s always an offensive threat, particularly in late-game situations.

The big challenge for Las Vegas this season has been the guard play alongside A’ja Wilson — Plum, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray each took a step back in the early parts of the year, and while they’ve all been better of late, their postseason production and efficiency remain question marks. Seattle might be able to steal one in Las Vegas, but I’d be surprised if Aces can’t close this one out.