The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the hottest offense no one is talking about


For the second season in a row, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are riding into the playoffs on a sizzling (and necessary) late-season stretch.

Through Week 10, Todd Bowles’ team was 4-6, effectively three games behind the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South lead due to Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker. Chris Godwin was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury, while Mike Evans missed a month with a hamstring strain. Hopes of a fourth straight division title were not looking great, but the combination of their 6-1 finish and the Falcons’ collapse flipped everything in their favor. By slotting in as the No. 3 seed, the Buccaneers also avoid playing the 14-win Minnesota Vikings in the wild card and top-seeded Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round, which is where they were felled last year.

The unquestioned main catalyst for Tampa Bay’s resurgence is its prolific offense, which has shown itself to be Super Bowl caliber despite little fanfare.

Liam Coen has elevated the Buccaneers offense to elite status

Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales had tremendous success turning around Baker Mayfield’s career, which netted him a head coaching job with the Carolina Panthers and sent Tampa Bay on a quest for its third offensive coordinator in as many seasons.

Enter Liam Coen, another branch off the heralded Sean McVay tree. Technically, he was hired after being the University of Kentucky offensive coordinator, but he spent four seasons with McVay on the Los Angeles Rams staff, including a one-year stint as OC in 2022.

The early returns have been extremely impressive and resulted in many fired cannons at Raymond James Stadium.

  • Fourth in points scored (2023 ranking: 20th)
  • Fifth in points per drive (2023 ranking: 16th)
  • Fourth in red zone touchdown percentage (2023 ranking: 30th)
  • First in third-down conversions (2023 ranking: 10th)
  • Seventh overall in DVOA – 5th in pass, 8th in rush (2023 ranking: 20th – 16th in pass, 28th in rush)
  • Fifth overall in EPA/play – 5th in pass, 6th in rush (2023 ranking: 12th overall – 8th in pass, 27th in rush)
  • Third in yards per play (2023 ranking: 19th)

These are hallmarks of an offense that is firing on all cylinders.

Coen’s success has already garnered interest from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have requested an interview for their vacant head coaching position.

The Buccaneers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL

NFL: DEC 29 Panthers at Buccaneers

Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Led by standout tackle Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay’s offensive line is one of the league’s strongest. They’re one of just six teams to rank in the top 10 in both pass and run block win rate, and finished 3rd in PFF’s offensive line rankings. Wirfs was his usual outstanding self and did not allow a sack all season.

Outside of Wirfs, who’s the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL, the rest of Tampa Bay’s starters are on cheap contracts. Center Graham Barton, right tackle Luke Goedeke, and right guard Cody Mauch are all on their rookie deals, while left guard Ben Bredeson was a $3 million signing in free agency. It’s looking like a bright future of Tampa’s mostly homegrown line.

Bucky Irving is the NFL’s best rookie running back

Last year’s Buccaneers offense relied heavily on Baker Mayfield and the passing game to function. Their rushing attack ranked last in total yards and yards per carry, with advanced metrics painting a similarly ugly picture of their struggles to establish a ground game.

This year’s Buccaneers rushing offense is lethal. Former Oregon star Bucky Irving was the lone rookie running back to reach 1,000 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and ranking in the top 10 among all running backs in success rate. He’s also Tampa Bay’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin in 2015 and leads the NFL in missed tackle rate.

While Rachaad White is technically still the starter, Irving has had the majority of the carries throughout the season. White is having his own career year as a pass-catching back, with six touchdowns through the air to go along with his 613 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry, by far his most efficient season on the ground.

While Irving and White aren’t on the level of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Bucs have seemingly found themselves their own version of “Sonic and Knuckles.”

Baker Mayfield is having the best year of his career

If last year was the career revival of Mayfield as a viable NFL starter, this year was the moment the former number one overall pick established himself as an above-average quarterback.

Under Coen’s guidance, Mayfield has posted career highs in completion rate (71.4%), touchdown passes (41), passing yards (4,500), adjusted net yards/attempt (7.13), and rush yards (368). He sealed Tampa Bay’s playoff berth with an astonishing 1st and 20 dime to rookie receiver Jalen McMillan.

Not every throw has been that difficult for Baker. Coen has made life much easier for his quarterback. The Buccaneers were one of the NFL’s worst play-action teams in 2023, but have since improved to 12th in EPA/dropback this season (according to NextGenStats). Tampa Bay also leads the NFL in yards off of screen passes (per Sports Info Solutions).

With Godwin’s absence, Mayfield has obviously relied primarily on Mike Evans as his best receiver, but other non-Evans receiving targets have had to step up to the plate almost by committee. After a quiet start to his first season, Jalen McMillan has scored seven touchdowns over the last five weeks, the most of any receiver in the NFL during that span. The likes of Payne Durham and Devin Culp have had to assume the role of pass-catching tight ends due to Cade Otton’s knee injury. The Bucs have had 10 different targets catch at least 10 passes, more than all but four teams on the season.


There is, of course, no such thing as a flawless unit. Apart from injuries, the biggest issue for the Buccaneers offense has been ball security. Mayfield tied with Kirk Cousins for the league lead in interceptions with 16, and the Bucs as a team have coughed it up 23 times. They have had struggles against stronger defenses like the Denver Broncos, who held them to just 7 points at home, and a healthy Detroit Lions defense, although Tampa Bay was able to pull off an upset win through resolute defending in the red zone. Their lack of strong, reliable receiving depth outside of Evans has led to trouble beating man coverage. This is also an offense that thrashed the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 4 and put up over 500 yards and 40 points on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers, the league’s number one scoring defense.

If there’s anything holding the Buccaneers back, it’s their lackluster pass defense, which is one of the league’s worst by DVOA and yards allowed. Their Wild Card rematch with the Washington Commanders on Sunday night has the makings of a shootout between two high-powered offenses and underwhelming defenses. If they can get past Jayden Daniels and company as they did in Week 1, the Bucs could be that dark horse team capable of making an unexpected run to Conference Championship Sunday.





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